Scanning the Horizon – Capital Markets
I am not surprised with the three-year 80%+ gain of the US equity market (SP 500)! Corporate profits and labor productivity gains were fairly well forecasted in our outlook from early June of 2022: we stated that inflation was transitory rather than structural (CPI hit a 9% annualized rate in May of 2022) and that once the Federal Reserve started withdrawing the excess fuel and increasing the price of fuel (fuel being the money supply and interest rates being the cost of fuel) that inflation would start it’s descent to the 2-3% level. We made assumptions that the pressure of wage increases were going to subside, consumers and corporations were in great financial shape due to the massive amount of liquidity injected into the system, and that Government spending would likely stay excessive, all contributing to an the economy that had lots of positive support rather than believe what most economists said: “we are headed into a recession”. As we noted at that time, “this is the most predicted recession that will never happen.” Wow, was that last statement ever more right!!!